Are Clinton Insiders Involved in Child Abduction? A Factual Analysis
A conspiracy theory has been promulgated according to which John and Tony Podesta were involved in the abduction of Madeleine McCann.
In what follows we will examine the relevant details and provide our final answer on whether the theory has any justificatory merit.
Our method will be straightforward and uncontroversial. We will consider only the facts that can be verified. The facts are all available on public record and cannot be disputed.
We will then determine the best explanation of those facts.
Fact 1 (F1): Madeleine McCann was abducted on May 3, 2007.
Fact 2 (F2) Official police sketches look very much like the Podesta brothers.
There are some important points to make about F2. As follows:
That the sketches look very much like the Podestas cannot be disputed.
That the sketches are real and official cannot be disputed. (Confirmed here.)
The sketches match so precisely that even the mole above Tony Podesta’s eyebrow is captured. And they match so precisely that they capture the small depressions on the ridge of John Podesta’s nose that would be caused by wearing glasses for long periods of time.
The likelihood that one sketch should match one brother, in virtue of sheer coincidence, is low. The likelihood that not one but two sketches should each match each brother, in virtue of sheer coincidence, is extremely low.
The likelihood that not one but two sketches should each match each brother, and should match each brother so precisely as to accurately capture minute details about each brother — including the mole above Tony’s eyebrow, the depression on John’s nose caused by glasses, the skin complexion, the 5 O’clock shadow facial hair, the distance between the eyes, the facial contours and symmetry, etc. — in virtue of sheer coincidence, is vanishingly, incomprehensibly low. To put into perspective how improbable this is, it is about the same likelihood as, say, being struck by lightening three times in a row followed by winning the lottery three times in a row.
Some have responded that the sketches are only representations of one person. This is false. Initially reports indicated just one suspect, but it has grown to potentially as many as six. As confirmed by the BBC. The newest images can be seen on the Find Madeiline campaign.
(Another point needs to be added here: police did not conclude with certainty that there was just one suspect; far from it, they only tacitly accepted there was one suspect based on preliminary reports.
Due to the inductive nature of police investigations, initial suppositions can always be overturned in light of new evidence. So if new evidence emerges suggesting that more than one suspect was involved, the original accounts would be revised. It would be contrary to the spirit of rational inquiry to maintain that preliminary reports have veto power over any forthcoming evidence.
And that is indeed what we have here. The hard factual resemblance of both Podesta brothers — down to the mole above the eyebrow — outweighs the mere possibility that there may have been only one suspect.)
Fact 3 (F3) John Podesta’s emails dating back to the time of the abduction are missing.
John Podesta’s emails were wiped or are missing from the Wikileaks release leading up to the date that McCann was missing. This cannot be disputed and is verifiable by Google authenticated email leaks released by Wikileaks. Here is a screenshot showing one of the earliest emails from Wikileaks — note the date of May 4, 2007, the day after McCann went missing.
Fact 4 (F4) An assistant was sending emails on John Podesta’s behalf on May 4, 2007.
The email that starts on May 4, 2007, the day after McCann’s abduction, is written to Mr. Sandler. Crucially: is not written from John Podesta himself, but on behalf of John Podesta, by an assistant named Elizabeth, indicating that John Podesta was either out of town or otherwise unavailable to handle emails.
You can view the email here: https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/9364.
To summarize, these four facts cannot be disputed: McCann was abducted on May 3, the police sketches of her kidnappers look very much like the Podestas, John Podesta’s email communications are missing leading up to May 4, 2007, and the first email we have on May 4 was written by an assistant indicating John Podesta was unavailable to handle emails.
Let us pause briefly here to consider two rival explanations of the data:
Explanation 1 (call it “Coincidence” for short): The police sketches of McCann’s kidnapping suspects coincidentally match John Podesta, the police sketches of McCann’s kiddnapping suspects coincidentally match Tony Podesta, John Podesta’s emails coincidentally are missing during the time McCann was abducted, John Podesta’s assistant (not John himself) was coincidentally sending an email on John’s behalf on May 4, 2007, the day after McCann was abducted.
Explanation 2 (call it “Involvement”): The Podestas were to some degree or other involved in McCann’s abduction.
Readers must determine whether COINCIDENCE, or INVOLVEMENT, best explains the facts.
But first, let’s consider some additional facts. What you are about to see might shock you, but it is important to stress that none of this hinges on speculations or assumptions — we are working only with what is known and empirically confirmed.
Fact 5 (F5): Tony Podesta collects images that show minors who have have been abducted and/or abused.
Multiple mainstream, publicly accessible sources have confirmed this fact. First, it was reported by Washington Life that Tony has turned his home into a “shrine” for artists such as Biljana Djurdjevic. Note the painting hanging in Tony’s living room below:
These images were provided by Biljana Djurdjevic, one of Tony’s favorite “artists,” who paints very realistic scenes of child abduction and/or abuse. Here is a collection of some images by Djurdjevic (you will notice Tony’s school girl among them, next to the malnurished boy being hung against a tiled wall):
Another sculpture that Tony has in his home appears to represent the same pose as a victim who was abducted and killed by Jeffrey Dahmer. Pictured on the left is Jeffrey Dahmer’s actual victim, and on the right is Tony Podesta’s representation near a cage-like structure beneath a staircase. (Note: this is known as the “Arch of Hysteria” – a sculpture by Louise Bourgeois.)
Further, the Washington Post reported that guests in Tony’s home were “horrified” when they saw that Tony had multiple, full color photos in his bedroom by Katy Grannan, whose photos show “naked teenagers.”
Curiously, Washington Post removed their report, but viewers were able to archive it here.
Fact 6 (F6): Tony Podesta has been friends with documented pedophile Dennis Hastert for many years, he still keeps in touch with him, and the two traveled together to Japan to mingle with students.
One of the Google authenticated emails released by Wikileaks revealed that Tony Podesta has “stayed in touch” with Dennis Hastert for many years.
Indeed, the two traveled to Japan together where they were surrounded by students. According to Hastert’s biography: “Hastert spent three months in Japan as part of the People to People Student Ambassador Program. One of Hastert’s fellow group members was Tony Podesta.”
Here is an edited photo of the two in Japan, confirming that they have been friends for decades. (The original photo is in the Wikileaks releases.)
One of Hastert’s victims was lying on a table as Hastert pulled down his pants and began sexually violating him, reports state. You can read the details of the case here.
Fact 7 (F7) Tony Podesta has children’s stuffed animals next to his bed despite reports of him not having any children of his own.
A citizen spotted the stuffed animals and posted a photo:
You can view the original source of the photo here to verify its authenticity.
Fact 8 (F8) Despite viral reports of the Podestas being involved in child abduction, neither brother has provided empirical proof of their location during the weeks surrounding McCann’s abduction.
For nearly 10 days, multiple reports have been going viral across thousands of social media channels alleging that the Podesta brothers were involved in the abduction of McCann.
The brothers have been totally silent on the matter. If they were not involved, it would be simple for them to provide empirical proof of their location (in a manner which guarantees no alibis were created ex post facto) during the relevant scope of time. That would settle the matter. But they have been completely unresponsive.
Let us summarize the data.
All conspiracy theories aside, we are now in a position to state the following as factually true:
J and T. Podesta very much match the police descriptions of child abduction suspects.
T. Podesta collects imagery representing child abduction and abuse.
T. Podesta associates with a convicted child molester.
T. Podesta has stuffed animals near his bed despite not having children of his own.
J. Podesta’s emails are missing during the time of the child abduction.
J. Podesta’s assistant was covering his emails on May 4, 2007, the day after the child abduction.
J. and T. Podesta have been unresponsive to widespread allegations that they are involved in child abduction.
Each fact, taken in isolation, is insignificant. Many people delete their emails, for instance, and it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re guilty of anything.
But when these facts are taken cumulatively in context, they do cry out for an explanation.
It is also worth noting that according the latest news about McCann’s abductors, UK police have issued a public statement according to which they now “know who took McCann” but they have been blocked from making an arrest due to international laws.
Readers are faced with a very important task of determining how to best explain the cumulative set of facts above.
If you want a more precise idea of how to determine “the best” explanation among several competing explanations, here is a brief list of criteria that must be satisfied.
The best explanation would be one that in comparison to its rivals does not depend on a host of contrived or ad hoc coincidences and just-so stories; accounts for all or most of the pieces of available data; is internally logically consistent and does not involve contradictions; accounts for the data in a compelling way, rather than creating more mystery; is simple, meaning it relies upon very few or no assumptions.
So let’s review our competing explanations.
COINCIDENCE: The podesta’s coincidentally match the police sketches down to the very mole above Tony’s eyebrow, John Podesta’s emails are coincidentally wiped or deleted during the time of the abduction, John Podesta’s assistant coincidentally had to cover his emails the day after the abduction, Tony Podesta coincidentally likes images depicting child abduction, coincidentally has stuffed animals near his bed despite not having children of his own, coincidentally is friends with a known child molester, and both brothers are coincidentally unresponsive and have not provided proof of their whereabouts during the relevant time frame despite viral news of the allegations that they were involved in child abduction.
INVOLVEMENT: The Podesta brothers were to some degree or other involved in the abduction of McCann.
Our own assessment: INVOLVEMENT is the best explanation, given the known data.
Unless and until there is additional evidence that better explains the data, it is eminently rational for people to conclude that the Podesta brothers were involved in abducting Madeleine McCann.
Now this does not constitute hard proof of guilt in a legal sense; but it does show that when presented with the above facts, people can be justified in forming the opinion that the Podestas had something to do with the abduction.
Watch the video below on the latest McCann news:
One reader responds: “Why would the Podestas abduct McCann themselves, when they could hire someone else to do it?”
Answer: We do not assume anything about the manner in which the abduction was performed. Cell site analysis indicates that as many as six suspects were seen in the area during the abduction making phone calls and observing homes. It may be that the Podestas took on a managerial role in order to ensure the timing and success of the abduction. Or they carried the child themselves. Or they were simply lookouts. Or they made an arrangement with the child’s parents. We simply can’t say because we don’t want to make any assumptions. Note that this does not conflict with either explanation and is an auxiliary question, because the primary consideration is whether they were involved in the abduction, not how the abduction was coordinated. We can answer the whether without having to know the how. An answer to the how would certainly be interesting but it is not required in order to answer the whether.
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